What
After
Arafat?
Ferry
Biedermann
A historic vote in Israel's
parliament to withdraw from Gaza has been overshadowed by serious concern
over the health of the Palestinian leader, Yasser Arafat.
Just days after the Israeli press unanimously described the highly
contested vote in parliament in favour of a withdrawal from Gaza as
''historic'', the event has been eclipsed by a sharp deterioration in Arafat's
health.
Now it is the veteran Palestinian leader rather than the veteran
Israeli leader, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, who is capturing the world's
attention.
Sharon divided his coalition and his party in order to push through
the 'disengagement' plan and his political future looks uncertain because of it.
Serious though that may be, it pales into insignificance for most
commentators when compared to the impact on the whole Middle East if the
75-years old Yasser dies or is incapacitated.
Palestinian political analyst Hisham Ahmed unreservedly speaks of
''chaos'' in a post-Arafat era. ''And it will be the Israelis who will regret
most his passing away,'' says Ahmed who teaches at the Bir Zeit University near
Ramallah. ''There is no other Palestinian leader they can do business with.''
The fevered speculation in the Middle East about "what after Arafat?" may
bring home to Palestinians, Israelis and the international community just how
important he is to the political process in the region.
Israeli commentators have combined the two issues, the disengagement plan
and Arafat's possible demise. The whole withdrawal from Gaza may be on hold or
in doubt if Arafat disappears from the scene, they say.
The media are torn between predicting chaos in the Palestinian territories
and the emergence of a more moderate leadership, a very unlikely outcome in the
short term according to most external observers.
In the case of chaos, the disengagement plan will be off, because it will
be seen as irresponsible to carry on with it. And in case of a moderate
leadership, the rationale for such a unilateral step will have disappeared,
writes a commentator in the moderate Ha'aretz daily newspaper.
Instead the government will then have to sit down with the new Palestinian
leadership to negotiate.
The deluge of commentaries and analyses in the Israeli press suggests both
fascination and deep confusion when dealing with the subject of Arafat.
Over the last four years, since the outbreak of the Intifadah , he
has been reviled as a corrupt, conniving old terrorist chieftain and warmonger
who is to be isolated at the very least and preferably assassinated. This has
been the official government policy that to a large degree has been backed by
the Bush administration in the United States.
One of the major provisions of the international peace plan, the roadmap,
is political reform inside the Palestinian Authority (PA). This is a code for
the replacement of Arafat with a more moderate leader whom the Israelis and the
U.S. Administration think they can do business with. Until now, Arafat has not
even formally, let alone in practice, given up his hold over the levers of
power, in particular his control over the security services.
Israeli forces have kept him confined to his largely destroyed but now
partially rebuilt headquarters in Ramallah. This may have limited his ability to
assert his control, particularly in far-away Gaza, and he has had to watch his
Fatah-movement get mired down in internal disputes.
He remains nevertheless the only leader that Palestinians can unite
around.
''The Palestinian people don't trust anybody else, certainly not the group
around him, which is seen as corrupt and power-hungry,'' says Ahmed.
It was exactly to circumvent Arafat that Sharon last year came up with his
formula for a "unilateral disengagement". The Israeli government kept repeating
that ''there is no Palestinian partner'' for negotiations or mutually agreed
measures.
By dismantling the 21 heavily guarded Gaza settlements where some 8000
Israelis live among more than 1.3 million Palestinians, Sharon is hoping to
avert international pressure, limit exposure to Palestinian attacks and
strengthen Israel's hold over parts of the West Bank, that he considers far more
important to Israel's survival.
Ahmed plays down the significance of the plan for the Palestinians,
agreeing with the PA officials that it is ''redeployment'' rather than a
withdrawal. Under the current version of the plan Israel will remain in charge
of Gaza's external borders, air space and sea access.
There is a danger that Sharon will ''increase his atrocities against the
Palestinians in Gaza,'' says Ahmed. The Prime Minister will have to show that he
is as tough as ever in order to win back the support of some of the right
wingers who have abandoned him, says Ahmed.
The vote on Tuesday (Oct. 25) was accompanied by a large demonstration by
settlers and their supporters in Jerusalem. Schools in the Gaza settlements had
closed their doors so that children and their parents could attend the rally.
The settlers and their backers among the religious and nationalist wings
of Israeli politics have agitated furiously against the plan over the last
couple of months. There has been talk of civil war, soldiers have been called
upon to disobey orders and threats have been made against the life of Sharon.
The decision in Israel's parliament, the 120-member Knesset, went 67-45 in
Sharon's favour. On the face of it a comfortable majority but in reality it
rested partially on the support of four ministers of Sharon's own Likud-party
who were threatened with dismissal if they did not vote in favour.
Now this group, led by former Prime Minister and current Finance Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu, has threatened to quit the government anyway if Sharon
refuses to submit the plan to a national referendum.
Netanyahu and Sharon are long-time rivals for the leadership of the Likud
and the right wing of Israeli politics. Netanyahu has now said that if he does
not get his way, he will challenge Sharon for the top-post in the Likud.
The disengagement plan still has to pass several votes in parliament,
including one within the next couple of weeks already on funding as part of the
state budget. The vote on the disengagement plan did not include a specific
provision on ordering the dismantling of settlements. This even more contentious
vote has been postponed until next year.
Given the internal upheaval that the disengagement plan is creating in
Israel, many commentators see in Arafat's illness an easy way out for Sharon.
The old Israeli Prime Minister, who gained himself the nickname
''bulldozer'' for both his penchant for demolition of Palestinian homes and his
tendency to bulldoze right ahead over political obstacles, has not given any
signs yet that he is considering a compromise.
Also, Arafat may well live to an even riper old age and the situation in
the Middle East may not change very much at all over the next few years.g
By arrangement with Inter Press Service